The PC has been the darling of the consumer electronics industry for the greater part of the past few decades, but the luster has clearly worn off as both businesses and consumers consolidate computing devices. That’s the conclusion of a report by market research firm Daniel Research Group, titled U.S. Personal Devices 2019-2023 Forecast Report.
According to the firm, a growth spurt in unit shipments this year driven by Windows 7 to Windows 10 migration will be short-lived as shipment volumes of desktop PCs, mobile PCs and tablets will continue to decline slowly over the next five years (see table below).
The report noted that most economists are forecasting a continuation of slow growth in GDP and employment over the next five years. While overall demand for consumer and enterprise PCs, tablets, and mobile phones are expected to increase slightly, only convertible mobile PCs will show appreciable growth. Even smartphone shipments will level off, according to DRG.
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While the number of employees will grow over the next five years, the number of businesses will slightly decrease. In the Consumer sector, while the number of households will increase, the resident size of the households will slightly decrease, DRG noted in the report.
DRG also noted that in the absence of any significant technology trend other than 5G, consumers will take a conservative approach to replacing their PC devices, driven by normal failure rates and emerging new use cases.
|
United States Total Personal Device Unit Shipments (M) |
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|
2018 |
2019 |
AGR |
2023 |
CAGR '18-'23 |
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|
Desktop PCs |
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|
Desktop PCs |
16.8 |
17.4 |
3.2% |
17.0 |
0.2% |
|
|
Mobile PCs |
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|
Traditional |
41.1 |
41.5 |
0.9% |
42.0 |
0.4% |
|
|
Convertible |
6.5 |
6.6 |
1.8% |
14.3 |
17.2% |
|
|
Total Mobile PCs |
47.6 |
48.1 |
1.1% |
56.3 |
3.4% |
|
|
Total PCs |
64.4 |
65.5 |
1.6% |
73.2 |
2.6% |
|
|
Tablets |
||||||
|
Detachable |
7.2 |
7.9 |
9.8% |
8.4 |
3.2% |
|
|
Slate |
33.0 |
34.9 |
5.8% |
17.7 |
-11.7% |
|
|
Total Tablets |
40.2 |
42.8 |
6.6% |
26.2 |
-8.2% |
|
|
Total PCs and Tablets |
104.6 |
108.3 |
3.5% |
99.4 |
-1.0% |
|
|
Mobile Phones |
||||||
|
Standard Phones |
7.2 |
6.6 |
-7.7% |
0.8 |
-34.8% |
|
|
Smartphones |
163.3 |
161.3 |
-1.3% |
178.4 |
1.8% |
|
|
Total Mobile Phones |
170.5 |
167.9 |
-1.5% |
179.2 |
1.0% |
|
|
Total |
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|
Total Personal Devices |
275.2 |
276.2 |
0.4% |
278.6 |
0.2% |
|
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∞∫∆ Daniel Research Group © (2019) |
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