Smartphones are expected to reach their lowest volume in a decade for all of 2023, IDC said Wednesday atop of a recent projection of the largest-ever PC decline for a single year. However, Apple iPhones will reach their largest share of the total market ever for the year, atop a decline in Android.
The research firm said the smartphone decline will be 4.7 % compared to last year, at 1.15 billion units shipped. That 4.7% decline is even worse than IDC earlier projected at -3.2% because of a weaker economic outlook and inflation that act to tamp down consumer demand with customers keeping older phones longer.
IDC said the smartphone market will recover in 2024 with 4.5% year-over-year growth, but the next five years will see a growth rate of just 1.7%.
The majority of phone makers are “extremely cautious,” said Nabila Popal, research director at IDC. Popal predicted with consumers holding onto their smartphones longer, they are willing to pay more once they do make a purchase, which augers in favor of higher average selling prices charged by vendors.
A bright side of the year will be in favor of Apple, which is expected to reach an all-time high share of the smartphone market at nearly 20% share. Meanwhile, Android will actually decline 6% in 2023, IDC predicted. China, Asia Pacific and Latin America (where Android is big) will see the biggest declines while the US will decline 3.8% and Western Europe will decline 6.1%.
“When the entire market is struggling, it speaks volumes to once again see Apple going the opposite direction,” said Ryan Reith, IDC group vice president. The premium segment of the market, including iPhones, has benefited from trade-ins. The used smartphone market has been growing by double digits, Reith said.
The average iPhone selling price is now above $1,000, while the average Android price is just $286.
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