The global tally of new smartphones in 2021 will reach 1.35 billion, an increase of 5.3% over last year, IDC said.
That increase comes despite supply chain problems affecting components and chips. Even so, IDC said the year’s growth was less than expected and the analyst firm also lowered its outlook for 2022 due to the component shortages and logistics delays.
The growth forecast for 2021 was 7.4% and is now down to 5.3%, while the forecast for 2022 was 3.4% and is now down to 3.0. The analysts said there will be “modest but healthy” annual growth rate for 2023 and beyond of 3.5%, partly fueled by a decline in average smartphone sales prices.
The third quarter produced a decline in shipments that was about double the projected number due to the supply chain challenges, said Nabila Popal, research director at IDC. For the fourth quarter, all regions will see a single digit decline, but all regions except China will end up in the positive range for the entire year. China’s decline will be just 0.2% for 2021 over the prior year.
The average selling price of a 5G smartphone was $812 in 2019, and will reach just $416 in 2025, IDC said. In 2021, the average selling price will be $643, slightly higher than in 2020 because of the popularity of iPhone 12 and 13 devices.
The average selling price of Android devices will be $265 for all of 2021, compared to $950 for iPhones, said Anthony Scarsella, another research director at IDC. That price premium allows Apple to control 43% of all smartphone revenues with just 17% market share, he noted.
China will end up being the largest market for 5G smartphones in 2021, with 47% of shipments, three times larger than the U.S. at 16%. China’s share will drop to 30% by 2025 as other regions catch up, the analysts said.
The 2021 level of 1.35 billion smartphones shipped is still slightly behind the total for 2019 pre-pandemic. About 550 million of the total in 2021 will be made up of 5G smartphones, compared to only a tiny amount in 2019. Year over year growth for 5G phones is 117%
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