Updated with Monday morning market opening share prices and analyst comments.
Intel finds itself in its weakest position in years, and now reports have surfaced saying Qualcomm has approached Intel about a possible takeover.
Long-time IDC analyst Mario Morales told Fierce Electronics late Sunday, “the news is real” of Qualcomm’s interest in buying Intel. “But what is not clear is if it’s all of Intel or a specific business. The latter seems more plausible.”
Morales was skeptical regulators in various countries would approve such a deal even if there are reasons for a merger. “There isn’t much overlap between both companies,” Morales said. “Both have rich IP portfolios and serve a broad set of markets. The combination will be formidable to compete against Nvidia and AMD. “
“Approval and overpaying will be the two biggest challenges to overcome,” Morales added. “The cultures of both companies are vastly different. That said, the new company should still be called Intel with Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon as the leader.” He said a formal announcement could be made as soon as Monday, but added, “I don’t see the deal being approved by regulators in the long term.”
Jack Gold, an analyst at J. Gold Associates, said he gives the probability of a Qualcomm purchase of Intel at less than 10%. “I can’t see Qualcomm wanting to absorb all of the various businesses that Intel has. In theory they could divest a lot of the businesses, a la Broadcom, but I think it would be a really big distraction and probably do a lot of harm to their bottom line for some period of time.”
Jim McGregor at Tirias Research was among the most skeptical analysts. "This deal would be like a guppie swallowing a whale," he told Fierce. "It doesn't make sense from a business or cultural point of view. The two companies address different markets, have different manufacturing strategies, and have completely different R&D strategies. In addition, I think the US government would take issue with it. "
The Wall Street Journal reported late Friday a deal is “far from certain” and the New York Times followed with a story saying Qualcomm has not made an official offer for Intel.
Bloomberg also reported on Sunday that investment firm Apollo Global Management has offered as much as $5 billion to Intel as an investment, in a move seen as a vote of confidence in Intel’s turnaround strategy.
On CNBC on Monday, financial analyst Gene Munster at Deepwater Asset Management, said a $5 billion investment would be "just a starter" for what Intel needs to do well. He also said Qualcomm or another buyer of Intel would need to be assured of access to government subsidies already offered preliminarily to Intel, which would include $8 billion under the US Chips Act, subject to conditions, for building new fabs. Intel is already able to take advantage of 25% tax reductions on its capital investments, including four fabs in the US.
"For all this to work out, you really need the subsidies," Munster added, noting it takes $20 billion to build a modern fab.
Analysts at Citi have been very "skeptical" of a deal, saying Qualcomm has little experience operating chip fabs. Citi has previously favored seeing Intel separate itself from its fabs while holding onto its chip design business.
Ruben Roy, analyst at Stifel, was also skeptical: "Similar to other proposed mega-deals that were unable to clear high regulatory hurdles, such as Nvidia's bid to acquire ARM Holdings, Broadcom's proposal to acquire Qualcomm and Qualcomm's attempt to acquire NXP Semiconductors , we believe that a Qualcomm/INTC deal would be unlikely to garner regulatory approval."
As of early Monday, both companies were not talking on the record and several other prominent analysts have opined that such a deal wouldn’t make sense and might not pass approval by some governments around the globe. Antitrust regulators in the US, China and Europe would scrutinize the deal, which could require Qualcomm as a potential buyer to divest parts of Intel.
Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon is personally involved negotiations to acquire Intel, according to a source who spoke to Reuters.
Reports of a possible deal sent Intel shares higher, by 2.4% on market opening Monday while Qualcomm shares were up slightly having dropped as much as 3% on Friday. Intel shares have lost 55% since the start of 2024. Qualcomm has a market value of $188 billion, compared to Intel’s value of $122 billion, including debt.
Intel told investors on Aug. 1 at its latest earnings call that it would begin laying off 15,000 workers as part of a cost reduction plan. CEO Pat Gelsinger told employees in a letter Intel posted last week that half of those workers have taken voluntary departures. The remaining employees will learn about layoffs in mid-October. Intel recently had about 115,000 workers.
The Gelsinger letter came after a meeting of the Intel board, with other news about an expanded strategic collaboration with AWS to produce an AI fabric chip for AWS on Intel 18A as well as a customer Xeon 6 chip on Intel 3. Also, he informed workers that Intel won $3 billion in direct funding under the CHIPS Act as part of the US government Secure Enclave program.
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Also, Gelsinger said Intel Foundry will become an independent subsidiary inside of Intel, but without any change in the leadership team. As part of the foundry reorganization, Intel will pause fab projects in Poland and Germany by two years, and will finish an advanced packaging factory in Malaysia but halt startup to line up with market conditions. No changes to other manufacturing locations were announced. “We remain committed to our US manufacturing investments and are moving forward with our projects in Arizon, Oregon, New Mexico and Ohio,” he wrote.
“This is the most significant transformation of Intel in over four decades,” Gelsinger wrote in that letter a week ago, before the stories of a possible Qualcomm takeover broke. Such a deal would likely be the largest merger in the tech sector ever, if it happens, based on large deals announced in recent years.