Did D-Wave Quantum just break through an important barrier in quantum computing? And, how much will it matter?
The company announced on the eve of its most recent earnings report that its Advantage2 annealing quantum computer “out-performed one of the world’s most powerful classical supercomputers in solving complex magnetic materials simulation problems with relevance to materials discovery.”
Details of the claim were published in the journal Science. In that paper, D-Wave said it “performed simulations of quantum dynamics in programmable spin glasses—computationally hard magnetic materials simulation problems with known applications to business and science—on both D-Wave’s Advantage2 prototype annealing quantum computer and the Frontier supercomputer at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory… D-Wave’s quantum computer performed the most complex simulation in minutes and with a level of accuracy that would take nearly one million years using the supercomputer. In addition, it would require more than the world’s annual electricity consumption to solve this problem using the supercomputer…”
The claim could have implications across industries, as the magnetic materials it speaks of are widely used in medical imaging, electronics, superconductors, electrical networks, sensors, and motors.
“This is the first true example of quantum supremacy on an important real world problem,” said D-Wave Dr. Alan Baratz on a webcast convened to tout the achievement.
However, quantum supremacy, often defined as the point at which a quantum computer can solve a problem that is impossible for a current classical computer to solve, has proved a slippery peak on which to plant one’s flag. It is often confused with or conflated with the notion of “quantum advantage,” the point at which a quantum computer can solve a problem faster than a classical computer. Some aspects of D-Wave’s paper sound a little closer to that interpretation of quantum advantage than quantu supremacy, though research claims over the years have been further muddled by media coverage and observers treating the terms as somewhat interchangeable.
Also, D-Wave is not the first company to have claim quantum supremacy. Google claimed in 2019 to have demonstrated quantum supremacy with a prototype gate-model quantum processor, and published papers to back it up, but the claim has been downplayed, debated, and dismissed by many in the sector ever since. At least one research team in China also has made dubious claims to quantum supremacy. Now, D-Wave is facing the same music that Google did, with an article in New Scientist collecting viewpoints questioning its claim and even suggesting that some of what D-Wave claimed could be achieved on a current laptop computer.
In D-Wave’s defense, it collected supporting quotes from numerous internationally known researchers, such as Dr. Hidetoshi Nishimori, Professor, Department of Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology, who stated in a D-Wave press release, “This paper marks a significant milestone in demonstrating the real-world applicability of large-scale quantum computing. Through rigorous benchmarking of quantum annealers against state-of-the-art classical methods, it convincingly establishes a quantum advantage in tackling practical problems, revealing the transformative potential of quantum computing at an unprecedented scale.”
How much does this all matter? Many quantum companies three or four years ago talked about quantum supremacy as a Holy Grail, something that could immediately change the landscape of computing and the fortunes of quantum companies. But these days firms are much more focused on landing proof-of-concept projects or even modest contracts with customers than they are in discussing quantum supremacy or quantum advantage.
However, for D-Wave, a headline-grab and a claim to this kind of “first”--even a hotly-debated claim–the impact could be significant. The company, headquartered in Palo Alto, California, went public in August 2022, and has struggled to grow revenue and achieve the notoriety of sector siblings like IonQ, despite Baratz’s energetic and unabashed PR efforts. (At the height of a brief period of stock market obsession with quantum back in early January, IonQ stock hit a high of $51 per share, while D-Wave was around its own high of just above $10. Both stocks, like many others, plummeted not long after.)
D-Wave uses a form of quantum computing–annealing–that compares a variety of choices and finds the most optimal one, whereas gate-model systems like those being built by Google, IBM, IonQ, and others, use qubit-based computation that needs to be virtually error-free to be of practical value. D-Wave’s methodology makes its annealing quantum computers most appropriate for optimization problems, such as complex global transportation schemes for the point is to find the most efficient route from among numerous possibilities. designed for optimization problems. Baratz has described quantum annealing as a more mature technology than gate-model quantum computing, and was one of many in the sector who disputed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s observation that “very useful” quantum computers are still 20 years away.
D-Wave’s claim of quantum supremacy was followed a day later by the company’s fourth quarter and year-end 2024 earnings report, in which it posted full-year revenue of $8.8 million, roughly the same amount as it posted for 2023. While that didn’t seem terribly exciting, D-Wave did grow its 2024 bookings about 128% over the previous year to $23.9 million. The company also forecasted revenue of more than $10 million for the first quarter of 2025, some of it coming from the sale of an Advantage annealing system.
The hype of a quantum supremacy claim combined with a positive bookings and outlook narrative seemed to immediately draw more investor interest in D-Wave. It’s midday share price on March 14 stood around $9.75, more than 90% higher than it had been just five days earlier.
For the quantum computing industry at large, undisputed quantum supremacy may remain elusive for some time to come. For D-Wave, the time to strengthen is pitch and make more money off its efforts is right now.
This story previously incorrectly stated that D-wave's headquarters was in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. It has been updated and corrected to reflect that D-Wave is based in Palo Alto, California.