Third in the series, "EV adoption wars in the US"
Will Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris be better for electric vehicle adoption in the US? In November’s close election, the difference over their positions related to EVs and tax incentives and emission regulations could play a role. Even so, what actions affecting EV sales could each be expected to take in the next four year presidential term?
The questions around their respective EV positions have taken on more significance as growth in EV adoption in the US slowed in late 2023 and into 2024. Meanwhile, the EV trend is accelerating much faster in Europe and China. The popularity of EVs or lack thereof in the US has lately helped shape the views of the two candidates in recent weeks.
Of the seven battleground states where each candidate battles to take the Electoral College, Michigan and North Carolina figure prominently over the issue of EVs. Michigan with its 15 electoral votes is a classic automobile producer, with thousands of United Auto Worker jobs at factories that make cars with gas combustion engines. North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes, is on a rapid pace to adopt all kinds of EV industries -- from EV battery and charging manufacturing to electric school buses and other EV makers. Both candidates have appeared at forums and rallies in the two states many times.
Kevin Franklin, president of the nonprofit and nonpartisan Randolph County, NC, Economic Development Corporation, has been following the arrival of EV-related industries in the state for more than a decade, including well before Toyota arrived on the battery scene with a $13.9 billion battery plant reaching completion in the rural community of Liberty southeast of Greensboro.
“The cat’s out of the bag” in favor of the state’s broadscale commitment to EVs, he said. State, regional and local governments have put in years of land-use planning for large parcels devoted to manufacturing and have supported government incentives that include the federal EV tax credit, but also government aid at all levels funneled to EV-focused companies to incentivize their hiring of workers.
Franklin won’t take a position on the presidential election, but he acknowledges a clear divide exists in North Carolina over the two candidates as well as what powers their next cars -- gas or electric. Urban areas of Charlotte, Asheville, Raleigh-Durham and the Triangle tend to be more blue politically with greater interest in EVs partly because driving distances are shorter, while more rural areas are more red politically, with drivers wanting quality vehicles that can drive over greater distances, he said. Tax incentives that either a President Trump or a President Harris could provide are relatively less important than the fundamentals affecting EV growth, like upfront vehicle costs and driving range, he argues.
“Consumers care about the range of the electric vehicle and is the charging network going to be built out,” he told Fierce Electronics in an interview. “If I have a vehicle with 300-mile range and I’m taking a 700-mile trip, how and where will I have to stop? EV cost and how far I have to go for a charge and how long it will take me to charge are more important than government incentives [like a $7,500 tax credit] over the next four years. But that’s not to say incentives aren’t important.”
RELATED: How North Carolina plugged in and went mega-electric
Donald John Trump on EVs
Prominent Democrats and business leaders in the EV industry privately fear electing Trump would surely mean the end of federal EV tax credit. That credit can reach $7,500 for qualified EV purchases in every US state. Some states offer direct rebates and others offer tax credits.
But the federal EV tax credit isn’t the only factor in play. A big question is how Trump would act if elected on federal vehicle emissions standards under the Environmental Protection Agency. Trump has vowed to roll back or eliminate many vehicle emission standards as well as incentives to promote production and adoption of EVs. He’s attacked California for its own emissions standards and has vowed to repeal those as well.
In August, Trump said the Biden-Harris administration, (now the Harris-Walz candidacy) would “take every single job” in Potterville, Michigan, near Lansing. “You’re not going to have any auto workers within two years, maybe three years. Nobody’s going to be making cars here.”
Michigan’s economy is heavily dependent on the auto industry. Some economists have opined that a strong national push for EV production could reduce auto assembly jobs for those making gas-powered vehicles, affecting Michigan adversely. “United Auto Workers are going to find that in five years, if we move heavily towards electric vehicles, there will fewer UAW workers employed in Michigan,” said Tim Nash, lead economic researcher and director of the McNair Center at Northwood University in comments he made in September.
Meanwhile, UAW President Shawn Fain credited Biden for walking the picket line with UAW workers, and praised his administration for creating jobs nationally “something Trump didn’t do in the auto industry,” Fain has said.
Trump hasn’t been categorically opposed to EVs, however. “We want to build gasoline-propelled cars, but we also want to build hybrids and…electric cars,” he said in early September. “I’m all for electric cars, but not all of them because they really don’t go far yet.” The driving range of EVs has indeed been a big concern of buyers, based on surveys and comments from carmakers, dealers and industry analysts.
“Not everybody should have an electric car,” Trump said at a Town Hall in Warren, Mich., in late September. “It might be 7 or 8% of the market and then you also want hybrids and you want to have pure gasoline-driven powered cars. We’re going to have everything. I will end the electric mandate on day one of the administration.”
Political pundits also note that Trump has softened his criticism of EVs since Elon Musk, the billionaire and head of Tesla, endorsed him. “I’m for electric cars. I have to be because Elon endorsed me very strongly,” Trump said at a Georgia rally in August.
Kamala Devi Harris on EVs
Harris has historically supported EVs with incentives in the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which increased the credit amount for new vehicles to up to $7,500 and added a credit for previously owned clean vehicles and credit for qualified commercial clean vehicles. The EVs must have been assembled in North America.
As vice president, Harris cast the tiebreaking vote in the Senate for the IRA. More recently, her campaign has said her support of a federal tax credit for EVs doesn’t equate to a mandate and that she doesn’t support an EV mandate. Some of her Democratic supporters in Congress wish she would be more vocal about her opposition to any EV mandates, however.
Lately, Harris hasn’t been as vocal a supporter of EVs apparently in response to “slower-than-expected consumer adoption of the vehicles and consumer pushback,” as CNBC recently noted, mimicking opinions of other campaign observers.
Sales of EVs have been slower than many observers expected in the US, but are still on the increase. Motor Intelligence has reported EV sales reached 7.8% of all vehicles sold in the US in the first eight months of 2024, up from 7.4% a year earlier. Dealers are imposing price cuts, subsidized interest rates and cheap leases, and average EV prices have fallen fairly dramatically in the past 18 months.
The cheapest Tesla Model 3 costs under $39,000, down from $47,000 in early 2023. Some popular models can be leased for up to $500 a month, down from $1,000 at a point 18 months ago. The JD Power EV Index said the average transaction price in August was $44,039, while the average incentive per electric vehicle was $3,035.
Harris’ campaign has said she doesn’t support an EV mandate such as the Zero-Emission Vehicles Act of 2019. She co-sponsored the measure when she served as senator. It would have required automakers to sell only EVs by 2040.
Whether she would ever sign or veto a bill as the next president with EV or hydrogen vehicle mandates is not clear, although Axios and other press outlets have pressed her campaign for an answer. Clean energy advocates are expected to push for tough emission mandates in the coming presidential term, but should also expect pushback from gas-powered backers. The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers hit Harris hard with a $3 million swing state ad buy that attacks her for her 2019 position, asserting, “there may be someone new in the driver’s seat, but the destination is the same: a ban on most new gas cars.”
To summarize: the general reaction by EV manufacturers and others in the industry is that Harris would continue Biden policies generally, including support for continued funding of the IRA whatever happens to the balance of power in the House and Senate. The consensus in the industry is EV growth will continue in the US at a rate behind China and Europe over the next four years, but at a faster pace of growth under Harris than Trump.
Electing Trump will mean a bigger change to EV policies than would electing Harris, wrote UBS analyst Joseph Spak in a recent investor note. “In a Republican win…We see higher variance and more potential for change,” he wrote.
PART 1: How North Carolina plugged in and went mega-electric
PART 2: How North Carolina boosts e-buses, EV chargers and batteries