COVID-19 will likely limit adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) along with the broader auto market for the next two to three years, according to a new report from Lux Research.
Today, plug-in electric vehicles are less than 5% of overall sales but will still grow to more than half of all sales between 2035 and 2040 despite the pandemic, the firm said Tuesday. In the next decade, luxury and premium vehicles will see the biggest adoption of electric technology, but a lower-priced mass market will emerge in the mid-2020s when EVs are more competitive with internal combustion engine competitors.
“Currently, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are more expensive and less convenient to use than their nonelectric counterparts, but technology will continue to close this gap,” said Christopher Robinson, Lux senior analyst. “We expect to see efficiency front and center as the next major focus of BEV design, with auto makers either downsizing battery packs to increase profitability or offering more range.”
EV buyers want smaller battery size and faster charging speeds, but also they want to know how far an electric car can go on a charge and what it will cost. The average range is now 230 miles, which has grown by 14% a year since 2011.
Prices for BEVs have done down, with the base MSRP in 2019 at $33,901, down from $42,189 in 2016.
Lux has posted online an 11-page executive summary with some details about Toyota and Ford plans. Toyota plans six BEV models by 2026. Ford plans 16 BEV models by 2022.
Lux also advised automakers to focus on their battery supply chain, since battery shortages have already caused reductions in some BEV production plans. Automakers need to secure raw materials like cobalt and lithium for future EV batteries, Lux said.
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