If you take Elon Musk at his word about anything, you have made a mistake.
He dreams in a different dimension from nearly all of us. He refuses to be grounded by what government safety experts think about many concerns. Such concerns include Tesla’s Full Self Driving system under attack from NHTSA. Or, there’s the possibility (probability?) or his Cybercab fleet becoming reality in 2026 or 2027—or whenever it happens.
At a glitzy “We Robot” event held Thursday at the Warner Bros. film lot in Burbank, Calif. , Musk showed off his Cybercab robotaxi prototype on roads far from public traffic. The vehicle has no steering wheel or pedals with doors that open upward and only room for two passengers. It charges inductively to regain power, not with a plug, raising the question of how Tesla’s inductive power infrastructure is provided. Tesla also showed off the Optimus robot that could sell for up to $30,000. Optimus has shown up before, and Musk has talked about robotaxis for years.
This time, Musk declared autonomous vehicles are expected to be up to 20 times safer than human driven vehicles. “This is a very big deal. It will save lives, a lot of lives, and prevent injuries,” he said.
It isn’t clear how that safety will be provided, as Tesla has been forced to recall its driver-assist systems including FSD over concerns about crashes and even fatalities. Those systems are not even considered truly autonomous. Waymo and Cruise are already in the autonomous space with their on-road testing of driverless vehicles, but even their future is not certain from a regulatory standpoint.
Say what you want about Musk the man, he does have a long-term vision that is what so many other institutions lack. Remember the days of the futurists back in the 1970s? They were actually looking at what will happen in 50 or 100 years, which was a nudge to slow-moving bureaucracies to start planning in that direction and to plan beyond the next two earnings calls or even the next fiscal capital plan of five or 10 years. It’s interesting that today’s long-term vision for clean energy zero carbon emissions goals were set by brave capitalists and governments who too often have needed to hit the re-set button on the future year when zero carbon is attained. Institutions today seem to be afraid to set long term goals or at least mention them aloud for fear of seeing investors flee or regulators pounce.
All I hear when I bring up Elon Musk in conversation is a guffaw or a bunch of dismissals: he’s a mysogynist; he’s a wack job; he’s a self-promoter; he’s been wrong before. However, Bill Gates had it about right when he told Walter Isaacson, “You can feel whatever you want about Elon’s behavior, but there is no one in our time who has done more to push the bounds of science and innovation than he has” (Elon Musk, page 439). Not sure Gates would say the same thing today, but probably.
Maybe we should just think of Musk’s ideas as how we view the visions of a futurist: He wants to colonize Mars; he wants robots that can care for our precious and impressionable children; he wants autonomous vehicles that work reliably enough to bring down the tragic human driver fatality rates on our nation’s roads. The most practical thing he and his team have done is help with low-earth satellite communications for natural disasters and the Ukraine war zone, the latter of which threw him into a political mess. And, oh, he makes the most popular EVs around.
Someone asked me, how can Musk want a Cybercab without lidar? Well, on using lidar, Tesla seems to have relaxed its opposition, with fleet validation vehicles that use lidar on the roof. It seems an open question still as to Tesla’s future reliance on lidar. The argument one Tesla engineer gave against using lidar at Tesla four years ago (aside from being expensive then) was that Tesla’s camera-based vision systems are meant to be analogous to human vision so why rely on lidar. To which, I thought but didn’t say aloud, was, “Hmm, don’t you want autonomous and driver assisted Teslas to be better than the human driver, since your main argument for going autonomous is that humans are not safe enough to be on the roads at high speeds in traffic?”
As a provider of good theater like the We Robot event, Musk excels and does seem to want the public to dream long-term. A friend said, “Musk’s media skills might be stronger than his self-driving skills.” A Burbank movie set lot indeed.
There is a fundamental difference in the value systems of engineers and safety regulators that is inescapable. Engineers want to build, test, break, rebuild and test again. Regulators want everybody safe. Everybody. Is there room for both?
The answer for the average human is simple. You line up for a cab outside a busy hotel sometime in 2027 (or years later, depending) and a Cybercab shows up to drive you about on crowded city streets. Do you get in? Or wait?
The answer: if you are a tech writer or an engineer, of course you are going to get in. If you are a parent with your child in tow, not so much. Musk has persuasive powers over engineers and the technology they create. But he probably hasn’t succeeded at the mom or dad test. We’ll see. It’s really about your belief system: I believe in tech; I’m not sure about tech. Yes, both are out there.
These questions of autonomous driving and safety might be more important for investors, including insurers, who want a sound investment, often with a date certain. So, investors, are you worried about a five year return on Tesla or will you be something more like a futurist, satisfied with a 20 year or 50 year return? Come to think of it, does anybody really think beyond 10 years other than Musk?